Springtime in Calgary

I'm not joking here. This is the view out my window a few hours ago, around 5pm, on April 21, 2008. The high temperature today was around -10C (17F) with a windchill that made it about -18C (0F). It's been snowing off and on for about 3 days now. What the hell was I thinking moving to Canada??? It's spring, and it's still cold!!!

f

fuck the pope.

stock market prediciton for monday morning

hahaha... are there people out there that make money making predictions about the stock market? yes, i think there are.

it is now sunday night for the US. but in asia, it's monday morning, and the markets are tanking bad. in a few more hours, the european markets open and it's gonna be ugly.

sidenote: i've heard that st. patricks's day is not a big deal in ireland. weird, eh?

the european markets will open down, reflecting the asian markets. but first thing in the morning, the US Fed will make some decision, some kind of statement. look for a dump of more money into the system (i.e. inflation), and a cut in rates. the markets will take some encouragement from thinking the Fed is paying attention and will do the 'right think', whatever that might be. it doesn't really matter at this point. and the market will try to at least level off, but will sink again.

tomorrow, people with liquidity will see deals they've just got to grab. and it might be a smart move even though things haven't bottomed out yet, because on the other side of this cycle, their buys will look good, nice margin.

this is fun. if i'm right about any of this, i'm half-interested in trying to play along. but i doubt it'll be as much fun as playing poker with the crew.

vote for mccain?

As the US economy takes a tough turn (check out JPMorgan purchasing Bear Stearns for 2$/share), would it be better if Republicans stay in office so that it is clear that they are incompetent at everything?

I started thinking about this because if Obama or Hillary win, they are walking into a world of shit; with Iraq, maybe Iran, Afghanistan, potentially turbulent Pakistan, NAFTA issues, the economy, which is not just the subprime issues, decline of the dollar, the fact that the US is not the largest economy in the world anymore (15-country Euro-zone, consider falling value of the US dollar, had the world's largest GDP last quarter), illegal wire-tapping, and it goes on and on...

given all that (and more), who would want to be president right now???

maybe it would actually be better to watch McCain crushed under it all. might even be fun to see.

Mmm... tastes like primitive RNA perhaps?

I am so thankful to have to some friends who are dorky enough to appreciate this too. link

End of dodgeball season

Tonight we played our last dodgeball game for this season. It was a lot of fun, and it's got my psyched for the upcoming ulti season! Yay!

the stars and moon look amazing tonight.

Stock market and inflation

i'm an aspiring amateur economist sometimes...

the dow jones industrial average gained over 440 points yesterday; one of the largest point increases in a single day. wow! right? good news? maybe not. the headline misses the point that the reason that there was this huge stock market jump is that the Fed Reserve bank has been auctioning money to banks for a few weeks and more importantly, dropped 200 billion dollars into circulation yesterday. just a number right?

200,000,000,000.00 US$

so the Fed drops a big chunk into the money supply and that relieves a short-term credit crunch and the stock market takes off. the funny thing is that this affects the cost of oil, which also set a record yesterday...

oil is traded in US dollars. and the value of the dollar has been sliding compared to the Euro, Canadian dollar, Swiss Franc, etc. and when the Fed prints a whole bunch of US dollars and drops it into the money supply, one side effect is that all the dollars that were already out there are worth a little bit less. so now, oil looks more expensive, and it is, but a part of the increased cost of a barrel of oil, which hit 108$, reflects the decreasing value of the US dollar. the long- term effect will be that US dollars aren't worth as much as they used to be, so everything starts getting more expensive too quickly. and all the money that people have saved or in the stock market isn't worth that much anymore. and that is more-or-less a definition of inflation.

over the next few months, watch for big banks and whether they make their margin calls. they will, but it will also make them nervous, and big, nervous banks will make the markets volatile. second, watch the credit rating of bond insurers like MBIA and AMBAC; if their credit ratings tank, or drop significantly from their triple A status, a lot of bond holders realize they might just be holding pieces of paper pretty soon, and may start to drop them for cheap to cut their losses.

it's not about the subprime mortgage stuff, that was just a trigger for a lot of inter-connected pieces...


Update: Oil passes 110$/barrel...

Update 2: To put oil prices in perspective, 1 year ago, a barrel was ~60$.

Honestly...

Okay, back to Spitzer since it's the headline... still...oy

Sounds like these prostitutes were fuckin' (no pun intended) expensive. Like 5,500$ and hour! If only science paid like that. Honestly, I can't imagine how good these women have to be for that kind of money. And he went back to them for repeat business, so they must have been good... real good.

on a completely unrelated topic...

Universities are pretty good for free food. Seminars, trade shows, lunch time talks, it's all just sitting there for the taking. And if you don't mind a few dirty looks, you can just have whatever you want. Sodas, muffins, pizza, cookies, sandwiches, chips, beer, anything...

oh yeah, i read Evasion again. Being 'homeless', sleeping in abandoned houses, shoplifting and eating out of dumpsters sounds like a wonderful life. :) and some people might read that and think I'm being sarcastic, but then people read this actually know me, and realize i'm being sincere.

Last Sunday I rode my bike around and took pictures... this is about 2 blocks away from my house. btw, i'm moving next month to a new flat.

Spitzer

The governor of New York apparently got busted for hiring a prostitute.

Who cares? What's really wrong with prostitution?

Which makes me wonder why some women are prostitutes. If it's to support a drug addiction, then she needs help with drug issues, making prostitution illegal doesn't help. If her prostitution is a reflection of some previous physical or sexual trauma, maybe she needs help with those issues, which is up to her, obviously. So, I think that if she understands what she is doing, and takes some reasonable steps to protect both the prostitute's and client's health, then I think prostitution should be totally legal.

What Spitzer says to his wife... that's between them, and I imagine it'd be rough.

Forgiveness

Its easier to get forgiveness than permission.

Real good radio

Ongoing History of New Music. It covers a lot of different subjects, lots of great music and so good! On the website, there are links to all the old episodes. I just finished listening to the Tool series. The Outsiders show is also really good.

Working backwards

The philosophical elements of Fight Club were not created de novo. Rather Fight Club's roots draw from stories like Fahrenheit 451, by Ray Bradbury. How did I not know this before?

The overt political statement of 451 is clear and motivating. And even though the political and social implications are thought-provoking, in parallel with this overt theme is an underlying critique of human interactions, trust, emotions and the distance between us. This space between us (LOA).

Ulti

Our 5-on-5 scrimmage tonight, resulting from our opponents not showing up, turned out to be one of my favorite games of the season. :)

No.

Hahaha! When she said she had to clean her bathroom when you wanted to hang out, that meant 'no.'

If no one reads your blog...

I think no one reads my blog anymore. Not to say that's good or bad, just a fact. Its kind of like 'if a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound' kind of situation. I wonder what kind of stuff I could/would start writing if I were to assume that no one would ever read it. Like writing in a private journal. Do people who keep a diary go back and re-read parts of their lives? Maybe. I'm not sure... maybe I should start one. Maybe not.

Fight Club

EXT. CONVENIENCE STORE - NIGHT

Tyler and Jack cross the parking lot, towards the convenience store. Jack wears a BACKPACK.

TYLER
Stop for a second.

JACK
Hey, what are we doing?

TYLER
Turn around.

JACK
What are we doing?

Tyler takes the BACKPACK, unzips it, searching contents.

TYLER
Homework assignment.

JACK
What kind of homework assignment?

Tyler takes out a HANDGUN, hands the backpack back.

TYLER
Human sacrifice.

JACK
Hey, is that a gun? Please, please tell me that's not a gun!

TYLER
It's a gun.

JACK
What are you doing?

TYLER
Meet me in the back.

JACK
No, no, don't fuck around.

TYLER
Meet me in the back.

Tyler goes inside the store and Jack runs back.

JACK
Fuck.

JACK (V.O.)
On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

EXT. BEHIND THE CONVENIENCE STORE - MOMENTS LATER

THE BACK DOOR opens and Tyler brings the store's CLERK out at gunpoint, forces him to his knees. Jack is already there, freaked. Tyler points the gun at the Clerk's head.

JACK
What are you doing? Come on...

TYLER
(to the clerk)
Hands behind the back.

JACK
God!

TYLER
(to the clerk)
Give me your wallet.

The Clerk fumbles his wallet out of his pocket and Tyler snatches it. Tyler pulls out the DRIVER'S LICENSE.

TYLER
Raymond K. Hessel. 1320 SE Benning, apartment A. Small, cramped basement apartment, Raymond?

RAYMOND
How'd you know?

TYLER
Because they give shitty basement apartments letters instead of numbers. Raymond, you are going to die.

RAYMOND
No,...

Tyler rummages through the wallet.

TYLER
Is that your mom and dad? Mom and dad will have to call kindly dr. so-and-so to dig up your dental records, do you wanna know why? Because there won't be nothing left of your face.

RAYMOND
Oh...

JACK
Aw, come on!

Raymond begins to weep, shoulders heaving.

TYLER
An expired community student ID! What did you study, Raymond?

RAYMOND
S-s-s-stuff...

TYLER
Stuff? Where the mid-terms hard?

Tyler rams the gun barrel against Raymond's temple.

TYLER
I asked you what you studied.

RAYMOND
Biology, mostly.

TYLER
Why?

RAYMOND
I don't know...

TYLER
What did you wanted to be, Raymond K. Hessel?

Raymond weeps and says nothing. Tyler COCKS the gun. Raymond GASPS.

TYLER
The question, Raymond, is what did you want to be?

JACK
Answer, Raymond! Jesus!

RAYMOND
Veterinarian! Veterinarian!

TYLER
Animals.

RAYMOND
Yeah, animals and s-s-s....

TYLER
--Stuff, yeah I got that. That means you have to get more schooling.

RAYMOND
Too much school.

TYLER
Would you rather be dead? Would you rather die? Here? On your knees? In the back of a convenient shop?

RAYMOND
Nooo!

Tyler UNLOCKS the gun, lowers it.

TYLER
I'm keeping your license. I'm going to check on you. I know where you live. If you aren't back in school and on your way to being a veterinarian in six weeks, you will be dead. Now run on home.

Tyler throws him his wallet. Raymond takes it, staggers to his feet and heads down an alleyway, running.

TYLER
Run, Forrest, run!

JACK
I feel ill.

TYLER
Imagine how he feels.

JACK
Come on, this isn't funny! That wasn't funny! What the fuck was the point of that?

TYLER
Tomorrow will be the most beautiful day in Raymond K. Hessel's life. His breakfast will taste better than any meal you and I have ever tasted.

Tyler throws the gun back to Jack and walks away.

JACK (V.O.)
You had to give it to him.

TYLER
Come on.

JACK (V.O.)
He had a plan. And it started to make sense in Tyler sort of way. No fear. No distractions.

Jack pulls the trigger -- CLICK. Empty.

JACK (V.O.)
The ability to let that which does not matter truly slide.

Close one.

Why can't some things just be simple?

A lesson learned from Vietnam

Ah! Honestly! Bush gave a speech today, and in that speech Bush drew the conclusion that the US should have stayed longer in Vietnam. Its so sad; not just that he's retarded, but that people are dying because he's so stupid.

Pickup lines

"That shirt looks good on you, but it would look even better stuffed into the neck of a vodka bottle and flung burning through our office building's window. Let's fucking do it and never look back."

From xkcd.com

Time

A lot of time can go by... and I get the idea that how I mark time, like by the last time I posted a blog, is a lousy way to measure how much time has gone by.

So, it has been a long time.

I've been in Calgary about 9 months. I've got lots of data, I'm so happy with my lab (is it not my new lab anymore?), I've met a lot of people that I like here, I play the blues on Saturday afternoons, I like to play video games, I got my own grant, I've re-discovered the Beatles, I went on a cruise to Alaska, I've still got a mohawk, what else can I say?

Psycho-kinesis?

How many of you believe in psycho-kinesis? Raise my hand.

Remember, half the people you know are below average.

Inside every older person is a younger person wondering what happened.

No problem, right?

I have to write something. So these British soldiers that were held by Iran for about 2 weeks are home safe and sound now; a lousy situation, with a reasonably good conclusion, considering the possible bad ways it could have gone.

Now these British soldiers are saying they were subjected to isolation and were blindfolded. That sucks. Chances are they will be ok, but really, the treatment they endured seems like some small measure of torture doesn't it? Imagine if they were held longer, more isolated, maybe to the point of serious sensory deprivation, or profound sleep deprivation, what if they were 'water-boarded' or sexually abused? What if no one was allowed any contact with them, family or lawyers? What if they were held for years and not even charged with any crime? What if the Iranians decided that even though these people are innocent, that they were now so anti-Iranian because of their detainment, that they could never be released? Would that upset everyone?

We'd have to say that it's all ok because thats what the US is doing to prisoners right now.

Fleeing the Tiger

From Renegade Zen.

One day while walking through the wilderness a man stumbled upon a vicious tiger. He ran but soon came to the edge of a high cliff.
Desperate to save himself, he climbed down a vine and dangled over the fatal precipice. As he hung there, two mice appeared from a hole in the cliff and began gnawing on the vine.

Suddenly, he noticed on the vine a plump wild strawberry. He plucked it and popped it in his mouth. It was incredibly delicious!

Exactly.

This bumper sticker cracked me up. For sale at cafepress.com. (I'm not here to sell stuff.)

Live bookmarks

I'm getting old. As evidence, I'm not as good with computers as I used to think I was. This is my test to see if I have my Live Bookmarks working right...